🎥 One Bet Away
On prediction markets, problem gambling, and the myth that's keeping young men on the hook.
My new video essay is about prediction market apps: your Kalshis, your Polymarkets, the “bet-on-everything” ecosystem that’s surging in financial media circles. The pitch from founders and select media outlets is that these are sophisticated informational tools — a new asset class that harnesses the wisdom of crowds. The federal government tacitly accepts this framing.
The video covers the gap between how these apps are presented versus what they actually do: the insider trading that’s basically a foregone conclusion, the 90% of activity that’s just sports parlays with extra steps, meme finance, and the specific way economic anxiety gets weaponized to keep young men cycling through the product. I spent an uncomfortable amount of time on the apps experiencing this first hand to make this video.
The purpose of a system is what it does - I’ve seen few instances where the system’s public presentation and actualization diverge this much.
Watch the full video here. Would love to hear what you think. Thanks for watching!